Three US elections Polymarket traders to follow (October 2025 Edition)
The sharps are moving off Mamdani...why?
We are fast approaching the scariest time of the year…elections! The New York City Mayoral debate happened last Thursday, which means we are down to the final stretch. There are three big US elections: the New York Mayoral race, the Virginia Governor race, and the New Jersey Governor race. The Virginia governor race is a foregone conclusion with Abigail Spanberg at 93%. Mikie Sherrill is in command at 81% for New Jersey. So our attention turns to NYC.
Current Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the NYC race. It’s down to Mamdani, Cuomo, and Sliwa. Mamdani holds a commanding lead at 92% at the time of this writing. Interestingly enough though, there appears to be a shift by the top election traders. What do they know…?
Listen, if a socialist is going to win an election, you might as well get rich in the process by following the experts. What could be more ironic than trading a socialist victory on free markets? Irony never had this much liquidity.
Methodology
Like our NFL and Crypto write ups, we will be using Stand, Polymarket Analytics, & Hashdive!
In this post, we will be looking at,
Overall P&L = Total Wins - Total Losses
# Total Positions = Current, Live Positions the Trader Holds
Again, there is no one, singular way to identify good traders to follow. We chose the 2 metrics above and expanded it across three categories: ‘Politics’, ‘Elections’, and ‘US elections’. There is high overlap between the three, yet way more data points in ‘Politics’ by a factor of 10. We shared ‘Politics’ metrics because it provided a better sample size.
Prediction markets adjust when the news comes out. Don’t be surprised if some of the information in this article becomes quickly outdated. Two of the tracked traders exited out of their Mamdani Mayoral positions after the debate. Do your own research and remember this is not financial advice!
Caveats out of the way – all three election traders below have a P&L North of seven figures! These three incredible traders are all already on Stand, and all ready to be copy traded. In no particular order, here they are!
Trader #1: scottilicious
Overall P&L: $1,179,193
Politics P&L: $891,441
Overall Win Rate: 84.1%
Politics Win Rate: 84.6%
Total Politics Positions: 69
Scottilicious has a tendency to jump in late to surefire markets. Rarely does he buy into a market, let alone an election market, below $0.70.
That explains the absurdly high win rate. You can almost think of him as a ‘bond trader’. In prediction market circles, a bond trader buys North of $0.90 on what is perceived to be a safe trade with a payoff similar to a bond yield.
For example, Scottilicious’ largest position right now is on “Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?”. He bought No at $0.93. It is currently at $0.98. Whether it was smart to wager $174,000 for $12,000 profit, time will tell. Still, you have to admit, it’s working.
Scottilicious is long on Mamdani winning. He has a six figure position on Mikie Sherrill winning the New Jersey Gubernatorial election. He’s confident that Abigail Spanberger will win the VA race too – although, he bought at $0.95 and it’s currently trading at $0.94. He even dabbled in some 2028 presidential election positions.
The results speak for themself. When you’re the #43 overall trader on Polymarket and your P&L is up and to the right, Stand not only listens, but follows. We added scottilicious as a must-follow for all things elections.
Trader #2: Kapii
Overall P&L: $1,010,650
Politics P&L: $1,015,650
Overall Win Rate: 60.2%
Politics Win Rate: 62.5%
Total Politics Positions: 47
It says a lot about Kapii that his Politics P&L is higher than his Overall P&L account. That’s because like a lot of traders Kapii excels in one area (Politics/Elections) and tries to translate that success into other categories. Pro tip: don’t follow Kapii into battle on anything Eurovision related.
Thanks to our friends over at Hashdive, we can see that Kapii is something of a contrarian; 49% of his positions were first bought at below $0.50. And he’s no stranger to sticking it out as over 40% of his positions are now below their price. But make no bones about it, Kapii is an election savant and has a long track record to prove it. He bought Mamdani at $0.45 before it was cool, back when Mamdani was still a dark horse candidate in the NYC Democratic primary. Kapii has no positions in the VA or NJ governor races. He’s put all his weight and analysis into the NYC Mayoral election. And it just so happens that Kapii is still a big Mamdani believer – er, trader.
What are Kapii’s 2025 US Election Positions?
Yes on Mamdani winning the 2025 NYC mayoral election
Yes on Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC Mayoral race
No on Will Curtis Sliwa drop out of the NYC Mayoral race.
Yes on Mamdani winning The Bronx in the 2025 NYC Mayoral race
Yes on Hakeem Jeffries endorsing Mamdani
Yes on Mamdani winning all 5 boroughs
You’d be foolish not to follow 50th best overall trader on Polymarket this election cycle (according to Polymarket Analytics). You’d be even more foolish not to track Kapii on Stand!
Trader #3: aenews2
Overall P&L: $1,437,944
Politics P&L: $892,896
Overall Win Rate: 72.9%
Politics Win Rate: 72.4%
Total Politics Positions: 79
The old guard can skip this recommendation. Anyone who’s been around prediction markets for any length of time knows the name ‘aenews2’ — one of the best news traders to ever do it! 85% of aenews’ P&L comes from Politics. Add their consistency to the mix and you have an all-time great. Be forewarned aenews2 has at least 5 known alternative accounts (all available for discovery on Stand) and likely more. The top traders know they’re being watched. They counteract this by preempting their main account purchases with freshly-minted accounts to get a nice profit.
What are aenews2 big positions this cycle? Here’s where it gets interesting (and this may change), as of two days ago, aenews2 sold his entire Mamdani stake (18K shares) and bought into the ‘No’ position.
No on Mamdani winning the 2025 NYC Mayoral Election
Yes on Sherrill winning the NJ Governor race in 2025
No on the Democratic Sweep (VA Gov, NJ Gov, VA House, Mamdani NYC, & CA Prop 50)
Prop 50 on Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50
My man even has a position on the Seattle Mayoral election (Yes on Bruce Harrell). How’s that for an election portfolio?
And thanks to our friends over at Hashdive, we can see that aenews2 is a careful trader. But he has the P&L to show for it.
Watch aenews2 carefully over the next few days. You won’t be disappointed.
Bonus Trader: debased
Overall P&L: $1,022,105
Politics P&L: $754,456
Overall Win Rate: 64.6%
Politics Win Rate: 65.7%
Total Politics Positions: 293
Debased is an elections trade machine. You read that right: he has 293 active political positions. The only thing more impressive than debased’s volume is his range. He won $400,000 from accurately predicting the next president of South Korea. His second largest win was on the Romanian Presidential election winner where he nearly pulled in six figures. Suffice to say, when debased trades on elections, you should listen. So what does he have in store for the 2025 US Elections? Currently,
No on Will Curtis Sliwa drop out of the NYC Mayoral race.
He bought the Sliwa position at $0.79, now at $.90. He also exited out of his Mamdani positions the past few days. Is that smart trading by taking profits? Or is there a change in the air? Or both?
Debased also is market making on the JD Vance Republican Presidential Nominee in 2028 market. Debased may be one of those accounts that you watch carefully on election night. You never know what he might do but better safe than sorry to have him on your Stand watch list.
In Closing
There are so many more traders than the four we shared here. A lot can happen in a week. Watch these traders carefully and copy trade them on Stand.trade. It’s free!
We would love to hear from you. Who did we leave off the list? What did we miss? Tell us on X.
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