Three NFL Polymarket traders to follow (August 2025 Edition)
The Hall of Fame Game kicked off last week, which means it’s officially football (not "fútbol") season. Preseason starts this week and to get you prepared for the regular season, Stand did your homework for you. We found three incredible traders to follow, all already on Stand, and all ready to be copy traded.
Methodology
We will be using Polymarket Analytics, the best prediction market history book around. It’s the perfect counterpart to Stand if you consider Stand to be your Bloomberg Terminal: real-time analytics and copy trading for prediction markets.
In this post, we will be looking at,
Overall P&L = Total Wins - Total Losses
Win rate = (# of Markets w/ Net Profit) / (Total # of Markets Traded)
# of Active Positions = Current, Live Positions the Trader Holds
There is no one, singular way to identify good traders to follow. Rankings can be misleading. The top NFL trader, as measured by P&L, had one big trade on the Super Bowl this year and nothing else (admittedly, winning $855,000 is nothing to sneeze at!). P&L is a good place to start, especially when you can break it up by category. You would never follow a trader who has a history of losing bets. At the same time, you have to consider how many trades they have made. We filtered traders to have at least 50 trades (read: not active positions) as a baseline for their activity.
We chose the 3 metrics above because not every trader is active. Some accounts (famously Theo7/Fredi9999) go dormant after a monstrous win. How much a trader wagered and at what average price factors into these recommendations too. It’s easy to have a high win rate ( % of markets traded where the trader profited) when you take assumed safe bets, i.e. trading in markets that have 90% probability. Active positions tell us they are still trading in the space.
Let’s meet our contestants!
Trader #1: semi
Football P&L: $203,587
Win Rate: 58.4%
Total NFL Positions: 524
# of Active NFL Positions: 1
Semi only has 1 active NFL position and it’s a small one. He is the #7 ranked trader on Polymarket Analytics. Last NFL season, his P&L was $203,587 with a win rate of 58.4%. Quite impressive, more so when you see he wagered in over 50 games for a total of 583 positions! Semi chose his spots perfectly last season and appears ready to do so again this season. His average invested amount was well over $1000. He already doubled his money on “Will the Vikings trade JJ McCarthy?”. With that kind of activity, Semi is an instant Stand follow.
Trader #2: RBP
Football P&L: $141,969
Win Rate: 92.0%
Total NFL Positions: 83
# of Active NFL Positions: 0*
*At the time of writing, RBP, had active positions on the Hall of Fame Game.
Remember that disclaimer about win rate? You can throw that out the door with RBP who has a staggering 92% win rate in the NFL. What’s more, RBP has won over $160,000 and lost less than $20K in the category. His aggregate win rate across Polymarket is 85%. Here’s where it gets interesting: RBP’s all-time P&L is -$84,291. So why are we recommending him? RBP lost over $365,000 in March Madness. We’re not recommending him for college basketball here! But if we were, we would caveat it by his one big loss was the historic Duke loss against Houston in the Final Four. He lost over $220,000 in that wager alone. It goes to show the numbers can be deceiving. You have to dig into the details to understand a traders’ strengths! He bet and won on the Hall of Game, so he’s already back in action!
Trader #3: JewHammer
Football P&L: $37,316
Win Rate: 70.5%
Total NFL Positions: 85
# of Active NFL Positions: 8
This trader loves football so much he already has $6,000 in active positions. We can’t tell if he’s a Buffalo Bills fan or not because he’s going hard in both the Bills to win the AFC Championship AND the Super Bowl. But anyone who is betting on Shedeur Sanders starting markets and has a 70% win rate demands your attention – JewHammer believes Sanders WILL start, although it’s by no means their usual +$1K bet: they waged $15 to win $140.
Bonus Trader: abeautifulmind
Football P&L: $106,204
Win Rate: 70.1%
Total NFL Positions: 749
# of Active NFL Positions: 0
Another whale who has won over $1.4M on Polymarket with a 72% win rate to boot. We excluded abeautifulmind because he currently has no active positions (we checked his profile). However, he was active during the NFL draft earlier this year. We have no reason to believe he won’t be once the season kicks off. He’s #7 in Sports with over 1800 positions across 250 markets. That kind of track record merits mentioning.
In Closing
You can follow semi, RBP, JewHammer, & abeautifulmind on Stand.trade with a click of a button. All their trades will appear in real-time to give you all the information you need to copy trade. Stand is free. So what are you waiting for…beyond the start of the NFL season?
