10 Markets That Will Define 2026
Here are the markets Stand added to its watchlist
Happy New Year! New years bring new markets. We figured it’s the perfect time to peak ahead of what’s in store for 2026. Of course, there are “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns”. We expect the unexpected whenever dealing with the news. Traders beware! More surprises await beyond these events. With that said, here are 10 markets Stand has saved to its market watchlist:
On January 3rd, Operation Absolute Resolve was conducted. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured in a surprise US military operation. The fireworks are just beginning for the new year. What is Venezuela's fate? Will former opposition candidate and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado reenter her home country before April? Who will lead the country? Questions abound, making it the perfect geopolitical event to trade.
And now his watch has ended. Jerome Powell reaches the natural end of his second term. But with Powell out, who will step in? My money is on Kevin…although that’s where I stop. Kevin Hassett is the odds-on favorite at the time of this post surpassing Kevin Warsh. One of these Kevins will get left home alone. There can only be one…new Fed Chair.
The Winter Olympics at Cortina
Buongiorno! Another four years have passed and it’s time for the Winter Olympics. Which country will claim the most gold medals? Well, Norway has topped the medals table since 2010, usually followed by Germany. Why would 2026 be any different?
Something Wicked is brewing in Hollywood…the annual Academy Awards! One Battle After Another is driving away from the pack to win Best Picture at 79%. Don’t count out Sinners or Hamnet or Marty Supreme though. Better yet – did you know you can trade which actors or actresses will get nominated? Jump in now because by February all the alpha will be found.
Will the Russian and Ukraine war finally come to a peaceful resolution in 2026? The markets have it at 17% before the end of March and 45% before the end of the year. We wrote a whole post about the top Ukraine traders to follow. Start with the experts. Insiders or not, they are watching closer than anyone else as they have real skin in the game.
Any day now. Any day. We’re all waiting on SpaceX to file its S-1 so it can move ahead with the most anticipated IPO of 2026. SpaceX isn’t the only player in town though. Once Upon a Farm, Cerebras, and Discord are all North of 50% to IPO some time in 2026. Prediction markets are a perfect vehicle to determine which companies will go public. 2026 should be a doozy.
The protests in Iran have no end in sight. Is this time different? Will Khamenei be deposed? He has a 33% chance of being out as Supreme Leader of Iran before June. That number jumps up to 46% before the end of the year. Choose your timing carefully. There are markets for the end of January and March too. Time will tell if the winds of change are actually blowing in Iran.
The World Cup is being held in North America this year. You know what that means? Dumb American bettors clumsily trying to figure out which socialist country will take the Cup in 2026. Europe is heavily favored to have the winning team at 74%. You can get more granular and see the individual countries here.
We are including two here since the US has a bicameral legislature. Currently, the Democrats are favored to win the House by 79% while Republicans are expected to hold onto the Senate (67%). Don’t sleep on the gubernatorial elections though. Ohio, Alaska, Michigan, Maryland, and so many more are all on the ballot come November.
It’s still the economy, stupid. Prediction markets are wonderful bellwethers to identify general sentiment on the economy. Right now, there’s a one in four chance that the US experiences a recession before the end of the year. Canadians, fear not – you can trade your economy too…until the end of 2027.
In Closing
That was our top ten list for 2026. You can save all these markets and more to your Stand market watchlist. Better yet – you can trade them!
What did we miss? What else are you excited about in 2026? Sound off in the comments. We always make a point to respond! And be sure to trade all the markets on Stand like the pros.
