Will the 2026 World Cup match the exhilaration of 2022’s?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is almost here, which means soccer prediction markets are about to become the headline. We have had World Cups before. We’ve never had World Cups with this much prediction market activity.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner market alone is already one of the biggest order books on Polymarket. At the time of writing, Polymarket shows nearly $1B in volume for the market. $1B!! That’s before any of the games start. At the time of this writing, traders are zeroing in on which country will win; France is leading at around 18%, Spain is at 17%, England and Portugal are around 11%, Brazil is 9%, and Argentina comes in at 8%.

The fact that it’s being held in the US makes this tournament all the juicier; international traders watching the tournament where prediction markets are popping off! We can’t wait.

Methodology

Like our NFL, election, and ultimate guide writeups, we went hunting for football (sorry NFL) traders worth watching before kick-off. We looked at Stand-style copy-trading usefulness rather than trying to crown the single best soccer mind on earth.

For this article, we used Stand’s analytics, Polymarket Analytics, and Hashdive. We looked for traders that repeatedly appeared across Premier League and related soccer markets.

We prioritized four signals:

• Exposure to high-liquidity soccer markets, not just one YOLO long-shot

• Presence in both international soccer and club soccer markets where available

• Current World Cup positions

• Copy-trading usefulness: does this trader generate a real signal, or are they just sitting in one obvious favorite?

Important caveat: this is not a pure P&L leaderboard. Some analytics pages hide full position tables unless you are logged in, and World Cup books are still actively repricing.

Trader #1: Swisstony

Why they made the list: Shows up repeatedly as a top tracked wallet across the biggest World Cup winner outcomes.

Visible World Cup markets: France, Brazil, England, Spain, USA, Germany, Portugal, Norway

Style read: Board-wide World Cup operator

Copy-trading use case: Best for watching where broad winner-market conviction is clustering

This is the easiest trader to put at #1 because the signal is not subtle.

Over $8M in lifetime PnL.
#1 Soccer prediction market trader of all-time

#1 EPL trader.
#3 overall trader across all categories.

Factor in this is a trader with nearly 200,000 positions and a track record that dates back to July 2025. You can pick just about any soccer league category and Swisstony is at the top. Ultimately, you cannot beat repeated soccer exposure. Watch Tony’s flow, market selection, and price discipline. Swisstony focuses more on a match by match basis. Type in any country and you’ll see all the trades in action.

The caveat is that Swisstony may not be a clean “copy every trade” account. High-volume sports traders often win through timing, execution, and portfolio management, not just directionally picking the right side. Still, for anyone trying to understand how sharper Polymarket traders are approaching soccer before the World Cup, Swisstony is a year round tutorial.

Trader #2: Countryside

Why they made the list: The upside, exceptional contrarian

Visible World Cup markets: Brazil, England, USA, and Norway

Style read: Contrarian

Copy-trading use case: Cautiously with tight limit orders around prices

Countryside is a country-basket trader with different slices across the board: Brazil, England, USA, and Norway. That mix is not random. It includes one historic superpower, one public-money magnet, one host-country long shot, and one Erling Haaland-shaped grenade.

In other words, Countryside might be underpricing narrative upside. Brazil always attracts attention. England fell short in 2022 despite a squad of talent. The USA will attract headlines left and right being one of the host countries. Norway is the kind of outcome that makes casual fans laugh until Haaland scores twice in 14 minutes and suddenly everyone is bidding ‘Yes’ at bad prices.

Countryside has the reputation of being a contrarian with over 64% of his trades priced below $0.50 according to Hashdive. But he also marks the rare “Exceptional” with a User Smart Score of 73.8. He’s better than 99.9% of all traders. He’s one to watch this summer.

Trader #3: 0x2a2c…9Bc1

Why they made the list: Appears across World Cup contenders and also shows up in live club-soccer activity.

Visible World Cup markets: Brazil, England, Germany, Portugal, Norway

Style read: Soccer-native event trader

Copy-trading use case: Best for following a trader who may bridge World Cup futures and match-level soccer markets

Suggested caption: 0x2a2c...9bc1 appears in both World Cup futures and club-soccer flow.

You think we were going to leave off the #7 overall trader? #8 in sports and #7 in La Liga, 0x2a2c gets the third spot because the wallet is not just sitting in World Cup futures, it is in every sports league possible. One of his cleanest wins was a Napoli match market where he won $500K on a $250K trade. I repeat: he won $500K with a $250K wager.

The wallet shows up across Brazil, England, Germany, Portugal, and Norway winner markets. That is a pretty useful cross-section: traditional contenders, public teams, and one chaos outcome. Add the club-soccer activity, and you get a trader who looks more soccer-native than purely ‘World Cup tourist.’

For copy trading, this is the kind of wallet you follow for pattern recognition. Do they carry club form into national-team markets? Do they buy teams with elite attackers? Do they fade overhyped public countries? The answer is in the trade feed. Stand lets you watch that in real time instead of trying to reverse-engineer it after the price has already moved. You can watch 0x2a2c in action.

Bonus Trader: RJW1

Why they made the list: Shows up as a top tracked wallet in the PSG Champions League market.

Visible club-soccer market: Will PSG win the 2025-26 Champions League? Spoiler: they did

Style read: Club-soccer follow

Copy-trading use case: Useful if you want soccer exposure beyond the World Cup winner board

Someone call Diego Maradona because RJW1 has the Hand of God. He’s newest on the pitch (that is, if you believe he started trading in March 2026. Alt account anyone?). But he’s a big spender having already traded $1M and has $700K in PnL to show for it.

With an average win rate of 43.5%, RJW1 wagers like a true contrarian, typically entering a position below $0.50. Just like Countryside, we’re talking creme de la creme when it comes to RWJ1; he has a 20.78 Smart Score (Exceptional) according to Hashdive.

We put him on the Bonus list because he actually doesn’t have any World Cup positions…yet. Right now he’s too invested in Champions where he has PSG winning it all – entry price $0.20 for those of you keeping score at home. RJW1 is a useful bonus follow if you want a soccer feed that does not disappear between national-team windows.

Why World Cup copy trading is different

The World Cup markets are not like week-to-week NFL markets or NBA markets. They are slower until suddenly they move very fast. A futures price can sit quietly for weeks and then violently reprice off one injury, one group-stage draw interpretation.

That makes copy trading tricky. Do not blindly chase every trade. Make sure you understand the trader’s style first. Plus, Stand’s copy trade automation is built to help you so you don’t always have to be on guard. Features like Take Profit and Stop Loss allow you to set your exit prices in whatever the scenario. You can read all about it in our documentation. Conversely, we have a great YouTube series that walks traders on our copy trade best practices.

In Closing

The World Cup is going to be one of the biggest prediction market events of the year. With over $1B in trading volume, Polymarket already has massive volume on the winner market, a growing menu of group and player props, and enough country-specific liquidity to make trader activity worth watching before the first whistle.

You can follow these traders on Stand, watch their trades in real time, and decide whether their process fits your strategy. Remember, copy trading is not about outsourcing your brain. It is about finding signal faster than everyone else.

And for the World Cup, speed matters. Because by the time Twitter/X agrees a team is mispriced, the good entry is usually gone.

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

In light of the MicroStrategy market – yikes! – we figured it was a good time to walk through how Polymarket markets get resolved. If you’ve ever traded on Polymarket, there’s one scary moment you don’t think about until it matters, “Who decides what ‘actually happened’?”. But first, we have to start at the beginning (where else would we start?).

How Are Polymarket Markets Created?

Before you can understand resolution, you need to understand how markets are built because the construction determines everything that comes after.

Every market starts with a question. Something like:

• Will the Federal Reserve increase interest rates by 50+ bps in June?

• Who will win the World Cup?

• Will the US and Iran sign a permanent peace deal by July?

The more specific, the better. Each market has two sides: a “Yes” side and a “No” side. Traders buy shares of either outcome. That binary structure is what makes settlement possible: when the event concludes, one side wins and one side loses.

But beyond having a good idea for a market, whoever creates it has to write the rules that govern the outcome. That means selecting a resolution source (an oracle or data source that acts as the barometer for truth), defining an end date, and spelling out edge cases. What happens if the event is postponed? What if the data source goes offline? What counts as a “yes”?

The four-step flow looks something like this:

1. Have an idea for a market

2. Write the rules, including which resolution source will be used to verify the outcome and set an end date

3. Judge whether the rules were met after the event

4. Pay out the winners

Simple in theory. Brutal in practice. Market construction is everything. If the rules are ambiguous or the resolution source fails to deliver, the whole thing breaks down. You can always review the rules and end date on any Stand market page before you put money in.

Different exchanges handle this differently. Kalshi, for example, submits every set of market rules to the CFTC under their Designated Contract Market license, and their in-house team finalizes results when criteria are met. Their process is far more opaque in how they adjudicate the actual resolution. Polymarket takes a different approach, an approach that leans on a decentralized protocol to handle the adjudication. That protocol is called UMA.

What Is UMA?

UMA is an “optimistic oracle”. It is a crypto protocol designed to verify truth on-chain. Think of it as the referee that Polymarket calls in when a market needs to be settled. You can read the full technical overview in UMA’s documentation.

The key word is optimistic. UMA doesn’t verify every single answer upfront. Instead, it assumes that proposed answers are correct unless someone challenges them. This makes the system fast and cheap under normal conditions, while still having a robust dispute mechanism for when things get contentious.

Here’s the analogy: imagine Wikipedia, but with a financial bounty attached. Anyone can write an entry (propose an outcome). If nobody challenges it within a set window, it becomes truth. But if someone believes the entry is wrong and is willing to put money on it, they can challenge it. Then a community of voters steps in to adjudicate.

That’s how UMA’s Optimistic Oracle works.

One important thing to internalize: UMA is not a news outlet or a fact-checking service. It’s an incentive and dispute system. It doesn’t have editors or journalists deciding outcomes. It has economic incentives that make honesty profitable and dishonesty expensive.

How Polymarket Resolution Actually Works

Polymarket documents their full resolution rules here. Here’s how the process flows, step by step.

Phase 1: The Proposal

Presumably after a market’s end date passes and the real-world event has concluded, anyone – and we mean anyone, not just traders – can propose the winning outcome.

To do so, the proposer posts a bond of approximately $750 in pUSD (Polymarket’s collateral token). That bond is the skin-in-the-game mechanism to maintain good behavior. If the proposal is correct and goes unchallenged, the proposer gets their bond back plus a reward for steering the market to its natural conclusion. If they propose incorrectly, or propose too early before the event is truly over, they lose the entire bond.

The bond theoretically keeps bad-faith or premature proposals from clogging the system. You can see how to submit a proposal through UMA’s proposing walkthrough. UMA’s greatest strength is also its greatest weakness: it relies on human nature.

Phase 2: The Challenge Window

Once a proposal is submitted, there’s a 2-hour window where anyone can dispute it. During this time, trading can still happen as the market hasn’t officially closed.

If nobody disputes within those two hours, the proposal is accepted and the market resolves. Fast, clean, done. This is the most common outcome.

Phase 3: The Dispute

If someone believes the proposed outcome is wrong, they post a counter-bond, typically the same amount (around $750), and formally challenge the proposal. This triggers a new proposal round. If that second proposal is also disputed, the resolution escalates to UMA’s full arbitration mechanism, or the Data Verification Mechanism (DVM).

Disputes are not free. That’s the point. Only someone confident enough to risk $750 will raise one – which filters out noise. You can read how disputes work in UMA’s disputing walkthrough.

During the dispute’s 24–48 hour debate period, evidence can be submitted directly in UMA’s Discord channels (#evidence-rationale and #voting-discussion). This is where the actual back-and-forth about what “really happened” takes place.

Phase 4: The Vote

If the dispute escalates to the DVM, UMA token holders vote on the correct outcome. The voting process takes approximately 48 hours. There are four voting positions:

p1 - No, the event did not happen.

p2 - Yes, the event happened

p3 - The outcome is “unknown” or “cannot be determined”

p4 - “Too early” to decide based on the end date and rules

The bond outcomes depending on who wins are as follows. If the original proposer wins, they get their bond back plus half of the disputer’s bond. If the disputer wins, they get their bond back plus half of the proposer’s bond. In the special case of a “Too Early” ruling – meaning the event hasn’t actually concluded yet – the disputer wins the same way. And in the rare case of an “Unknown/50-50” ruling, the market resolves at $0.50 per share.

You can read the full dispute resolution lifecycle in UMA’s resolving disputes documentation.

Phase 5: The Resolution

Once a market resolves, whether through an unchallenged proposal or a DVM vote, trading stops, winning tokens become redeemable for $1.00 each, and losing tokens become worthless. If you’re on the winning side, you redeem through the CTF collateral adapter, which burns your outcome tokens and returns pUSD to your wallet.

There are Three Roles That Matter in UMA

The Proposer submits an answer to how the market should resolve. If they’re right and unchallenged, they profit. If they’re wrong and get disputed, they lose their bond. See UMA’s proposing overview.

The Disputer challenges an answer they believe is wrong. If they’re correct, as determined by UMA’s final arbitration they’re rewarded. If they’re wrong, they eat the cost. See UMA’s disputing overview.

The Arbitrator (UMA DVM) only enters the picture if a dispute is raised. UMA’s governance-based voting mechanism serves as the final judge and returns a ruling. See UMA’s dispute resolution overview.

So Who’s Actually the Judge: Polymarket or UMA?

Both, but for different things.

Polymarket defines the rules of the game on what counts as YES or NO, which sources matter, and how edge cases are handled. UMA enforces the adjudication mechanism: the optimistic proposal, the challenge window, and arbitration if it comes to that.

This separation is useful. Polymarket can focus on market design and user experience. UMA provides the hardened dispute infrastructure underneath. Neither has unchecked power over outcomes, which is the whole point. Ultimately, though, it’s not a marriage built to last.

Why is Polymarket leaving UMA? The UMA.Rocks Problem

Remember, everything above assumes UMA voters are acting in good faith. That assumption has been tested, badly, more than once.

In practice, the top ten wallet addresses account for more than half of all votes in disputed Polymarket markets. Making this worse is UMA.rocks, a platform that lets token holders pool and delegate voting power to a specialized committee which makes coordinated voting easier and more opaque.

The Wall Street Journal investigated this directly, finding at least 60% of active UMA voters held positions in the very markets they were voting to resolve across 300+ dispute cases. That’s not an edge case. That’s the norm. Garrick Wilhelm, a British Columbia resident who bet $567 against an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire lost terribly as a result of UMA Rocks. He later learned his trade was decided by token holders who had their own money riding on the same outcome. The resolution itself was genuinely contentious. The criteria required confirmation from “both governments,” but Hezbollah isn’t a government. The IDF Chief said there was “no effective cessation of hostilities.” Hezbollah called the extension “meaningless.” The market resolved YES anyway on a secondary “overwhelming media consensus” clause the proposer invoked when the primary criterion was structurally unsatisfiable. Traders who read the literal rules lost. This ran alongside the $203M US-Iran ceasefire market resolving NO despite Trump publicly announcing an extension.

The reason why UMA fails is two-fold. First, the 2-hour challenge window is too short for most honest voters to vet real-world claims. Neglect becomes UMA.rocks ally. Second, a $750 bond is trivial relative to a seven-figure market. The risk/reward for a bad-faith dispute is almost always attractive. The people deciding “what really happened” are often the same people who bet on the answer, and a well-capitalized actor can override ground truth for a few thousand dollars. Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome.

This is why Polymarket confirmed $POLY. Eventually, Polymarket will move off UMA in favor of its own resolution system that is community governed. The details are sparse, yet everyone is eagerly anticipating it. In the meantime, Polymarket has started issuing ‘clarifications’.

What Are “Clarifications” and Why Do They Matter?

In August 2025, Polymarket introduced a feature called clarifications. The name is exactly what it sounds like: edits or updates to how a market will be judged, issued after trading has already begun.

A clarification might add new resolution sources, for example, accepting credible news organizations in addition to official government statements. It might also expand upon how specific edge cases will be handled. Clarifications cannot change the fundamental intent of the original question, and they’re published on-chain via Polymarket’s bulletin board contract, making them auditable.

If you think a clarification is needed on a market you’re in, you can request one in the Polymarket Discord #market-review channel. You can also see clarifications happen on Stand.

A pulsing red dot means a clarification was issued within the last 48 hours.
An amber dot means a clarification was issued more than 48 hours ago.

Undisputed resolution takes about 2 hours after proposal. A fully disputed resolution that goes to a DVM vote takes 4 to 6 days total.

Common Questions (FAQ)

What does “resolved” mean on Polymarket?
It means the market has a final outcome. The options are YES, NO, or 50/50. Winning positions can be redeemed for $1.00 each. See Polymarket’s resolution docs.

Can a resolved market change after the fact?
If a dispute is raised during the 2-hour challenge window and the final arbitration rules differently from the initial proposal, the outcome can change. That’s the whole point of the optimistic oracle plus dispute system. Learn more about it in the UMA dispute lifecycle and resolving disputes.

Why not just have Polymarket decide?
You could, but then you’re trusting one party to control the outcome of markets with real money on the line. The long-term play is the introduction of $POLY which we talk about in “In Closing”.

What should I do if I think a market will resolve controversially?
Read the resolution criteria before entering any trade. Most traders don’t take the time and that’s where they get burned. Avoid markets with vague language like “significant,” “major,” or “widely reported” unless you’re explicitly trading on that ambiguity. And treat “likely dispute” as a risk factor: disputes can add days to the resolution timeline and tie up your capital.

What happens to my money during a dispute?
Resolution affects when and whether you can redeem, and how long your capital is tied up. Disputes can extend timelines by 4 to 6 days. If you’re using Stand, this is one of those “quiet edges” where the traders who actually read the rules outperform the ones who don’t.

In Closing

Here’s the process again:

1. Market is created with rules: The market specifies what counts as truth: an official source, a specific metric, a timestamp cutoff. Ambiguity here is the number-one cause of resolution drama.

2. Event happens (or doesn’t): Trading continues until the market closes or becomes resolvable.

3. An outcome gets proposed on-chain: Someone posts a bond and submits “YES” or “NO” based on the market’s rules.

4. 2-hour challenge window: Anyone who believes the proposed outcome is wrong can dispute it by posting a matching bond.

5. No dispute → market finalizes: The proposed outcome becomes accepted truth. Winning tokens become redeemable.

6. Dispute → escalation to UMA arbitration: The DVM (governance-based voting) on Mainnet takes over. A 24–48 hour debate period, then a ~48-hour vote. Final ruling is binding.

P.S. What is $POLY and how does it factor into Polymarket’s resolution?

In April 2026, Polymarket announced what it called its “biggest change to date“ when it rebuilt its exchange stack, revealed a native stablecoin (pUSD, backed 1:1 by Circle’s USDC), and confirmed plans for a native governance token called $POLY. No launch date was given around $POLY, although competing prediction market exchanges like Predict have listed odds of a $POLY launch before EOY at just 48%.

The exact role POLY will play in resolution hasn’t been spelled out publicly. What’s clear is Polymarket is building toward owning more of its own infrastructure. If $POLY follows the playbook of other governance tokens in the prediction market space, it could eventually give $POLY holders influence over how disputes are adjudicated replacing or supplementing UMA’s DVM with Polymarket’s own staking and voting mechanism.

That would be a full-circle moment: a platform that launched by outsourcing truth to a third-party oracle, gradually reclaiming control over what counts as truth on its own platform. And while it hasn’t been confirmed, it stands to reason that Polymarket will reward traders with high volumes and market making capabilities. Thankfully, Stand helps you achieve both quickly and efficiently.

Have you ever looked at a Polymarket market and thought: why is there always someone willing to buy at 48 and sell at 52?

That’s inherent to a trader’s strategy. And increasingly, it’s paid.

Polymarket has a liquidity program called ‘Rewards’ that pays traders for doing the unsexy but essential job of keeping markets tradable. These traders post competitive limit orders on the book to help narrow the spread and create healthier market dynamics. It is speculated, yet unconfirmed, that people who participate in the rewards program will qualify for the Polymarket token airdrop. We don’t know for sure, but it’s good to know how the program works all the same.

Polymarket is dropping millions and millions of dollars for their rewards programs. So in this post we will cover:

• What Polymarket Rewards are

• How do you earn rewards

• Why rewards matter

• Why whales (aka top traders) care

• How to use Stand’s Pegged Orders to optimize after them

What are Polymarket Rewards?

Polymarket Rewards are daily payouts from Polymarket for traders who provide liquidity by placing resting limit orders (maker orders).

To simplify the terminology even further,

When your limit order sits on the book, it helps other traders get filled at better prices. That makes the market healthier, so Polymarket incentivizes it.

You may notice we used a term called “maker orders” above. Maker orders are any order that helps add liquidity to a market. Taker orders are any order that removes liquidity from a market. Polymarket does not incentivize for this.

It’s important to remember that rewards are for makers (people posting resting orders or adding liquidity to a market), not takers. Rewards are distributed daily at midnight UTC. Polymarket will drop the amount of rewards earned directly into your wallet.

Polymarket designed the program to encourage tight, competitive quotes near the midpoint and generally discourage overtly exploitative behavior. You don’t need to memorize the formula, although it’s available in Polymarket’s documentation. The intuitive version is:

The more you help keep the market tradeable, by quoting reasonable prices with real size, consistently, the more you can earn.

How do you earn Polymarket rewards?

After you have found a market you want to earn rewards in, you need to check the rewards’ criteria for that market.

Each market will have their own spread, own reward, and minimum shares amount to qualify.

Take the ‘Maine Senate Election Winner’ market. To qualify for rewards here, you need to place a limit order (maker order) of at least 200 shares within $0.035 cents of the market price.

If I placed a maker order of 100 shares, I would not qualify.

If I placed a maker order outside the $0.19-$0.23 reward spread range, I would not qualify.

Stand highlights the price band you need to place your maker order to qualify for rewards. When you place a maker order, a gift icon for your order will appear indicating that you are earning rewards.

The $30 for this market will be distributed to all qualifying participants. Some markets are more competitive than others, making it difficult to earn rewards. Polymarket gives you a nice competition meter and scoring liquidity percentage to help you see where you stand in a market. The scoring liquidity percentage shows you how much liquidity you are providing to that market.

Rewards are paid out each day at midnight UTC. To earn the payout, you must pass the $1 reward payout threshold. Otherwise, you will not be paid.

This is why it’s important to look at the competition and choose your markets accordingly!

Why do Polymarket Rewards matter to the Polymarket ecosystem?

Because liquidity is the difference between “this is a cool idea” and “this is a real market.”

More liquidity means, tighter spreads (cheaper to trade), more depth (you can trade without moving price as much), better price discovery (prices reflect information faster), and more trust (markets feel less like a casino, more like a venue)!

From time to time, Polymarket will ramp up incentive programs to spark certain market categories. Be sure to be on watch, but remember, whales are also watching and have a larger bank roll than you!

Why does Polymarket do this? In their own words,

• Catalyze liquidity across all markets

• Encourage liquidity throughout a market’s entire lifecycle

• Motivate passive, balanced quoting tight to a market’s midpoint

• Encourage trading activity

• Discourage blatantly exploitative behaviors

Why do whales care about Polymarket Rewards?

Say you’re a whale trading size, the spread isn’t a rounding error – it’s your rent. Rewards can “rebate” your execution costs too. If you’re the one tightening spreads (posting competitive bids/asks), rewards can offset the cost of showing liquidity and getting filled.

Whales focus on Polymarket Rewards for two reasons:

1. It helps them with market discovery

2. It’s another source of income

Whales want to know which markets are new and which are healthy. Best case scenario is you find a market you understand well, can price it accordingly, and get paid in rewards in the process. That’s why whales look at rewards. Some traders are amazing in sports markets, but get wrecked in political markets (or vice versa). Rewards allow the pros to stay in their lanes and get paid in the process.

And rewards scale with process. The best traders don’t just have opinions – they have systems. Whales are consistently in markets, consistently near the right price, and consistently managing risk. The rewards pay consistency. That’s whale-friendly. Rewards also have the added benefit of being category-specific. You can filter them to a field of your expertise. And voila! Another source of income for trading how you want.

Thankfully, Stand automates pegged orders to level the playing field and help traders of all sizes farm rewards!

How do Stand’s Pegged Orders help with rewards?

Stand’s mission is to make traders profitable. Early on we spotted rewards favors people who are consistently quoting competitive limit orders. Most humans are not built for “consistently”.

So Stand built pegged orders to help traders farm Polymarket Rewards

NOTE: Pegged orders work in Stand accounts, not imported/linked Polymarket accounts.

Instead of placing a limit order and then watching the market move, forcing you to cancel/replace your orders until your soul leaves your body, pegged orders automate the keep-your-quote-competitive loop.

Here is a simple, sane “rewards” farming playbook:

1. Pick a market you’d be fine holding.

The Rewards icon will appear in the order book telling you how much and what you need to do to qualify. Remember! Rewards are not free money. You can get filled. Choose markets where “oops, I got filled” isn’t catastrophic, ideally in a topic you understand well.

2. Go to the Auto tab of the Trade Panel. Use Top-of-Book pegged orders to stay competitive

3. Pick the side and the outcome you want for a specific market.

4. Select your offset and budget.

The offset is how far from the best bid/ask your order will be kept. For example,

A tick of ‘0’ = Keeps you at the top of the order book

A tick of ‘+1’ = 1 ticks above the best bid/ask

A tick of ‘−1’ = 1 ticks below the best bid/ask

In the market I’ve selected, I need at least 200 shares to qualify for rewards. A $50 budget is the lowest amount I can place for the automation.

It may be a good idea to choose an order price range, that way the automation will stop if the order book moves outside your range. It’s one more control at your disposal.

5. Click ‘Set Automation’ and voila! You’re now earning rewards.

You can see the automation in the order book with the robot icon. When you hover over it, it will tell you what the settings are and if you qualify for rewards.

You can see your automations at any time in either the market page or your profile. Go to “Automations”. You can turn it on or off there.

6. Monitor like a grown-up

Stand’s Pegged Order automation is powerful, but it’s not a babysitter. If the market conditions change (ex: news, volatility, liquidity dries up), you have to adjust. And if you set the offset too aggressively, you’ll lose more to adverse selection than you gain by earning rewards. Never confuse ‘farming’ with ‘printing’. The point is a positive net outcome. Stand’s alerts will help, but ultimately, it’s up to you.

One key idea to remember is that Polymarket’s liquidity rewards methodology explicitly incentivizes tight, balanced quoting. So two-sided depth gets boosted and single-sided can still score in many cases. Translation: if you can provide useful liquidity without getting run over, you’re playing the game Polymarket is paying for.

In Closing

If you want to earn Polymarket Rewards, you’re not trying to be “right” in the headline sense, you’re trying to be useful to the order book consistently.

Stand makes that easier by allowing traders

• see markets fast

• trade quickly

• automate execution with tools like Pegged Orders

• and (if you want) copy trade whales while you learn the ropes

We have more automations coming. Tell us what you want and what you think of the rewards article in the comments! Take a Stand. Earn when you’re right.

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

So we did your homework for you using Polymarket Analytics (the best prediction market history book around) and Stand’s analytic suite. Below are 12 — count ‘em, 12 — traders across four categories you can follow on Stand with one click and tail in real time.

In this post, we’re looking at:

• Category PnL = Gains – Losses

• Win rate = % of profitable markets

• Active positions = a quick proxy for “still in the arena”

3 Politics Traders to Copy Trade

Politics markets are where narrative meets information. They can be the most “efficient” markets on earth…until they’re not. The best copy trading targets here tend to be traders who can handle whipsaws, size properly, and survive the temptation to turn every headline into a trade.

Trader #1: ImJustKen (aka Domahhh)

• Politics PnL: $1,919,179

• Win Rate: 62.8%

• Gains / Losses: $3,861,993 / $1,942,814

• Active positions: 671

Ken’s (aka Domer) edge in Politics looks like the rare combo of scale and discipline: tons of reps, lots of active exposure, and still a strong win rate in a category that punishes emotional trading. Politics markets love to overreact to narrative shifts, then mean-revert the moment the next datapoint drops. Ken seems to thrive in that churn. For copy trading, the signal isn’t just “Ken bought”; it’s when he buys and whether he adds after the market moves against him (conviction) or trims into strength (process). If Politics is a telenovela, Ken’s not watching the drama, he’s reading the script.

Trader #2: YatSen (aka HarveyMackinto2)

• Politics PnL: $1,847,459

• Win Rate: 73.8%

• Gains / Losses: $2,438,020 / $590,561

• Active positions: 35

YatSen’s Politics profile reads like someone who’s selective, decisive, and very comfortable putting real size behind a view. That win rate (73.8% in Politics & ranked #20 all-time) suggests he’s not just “spraying”, he’s choosing spots where timing and structure matter. In Politics, the cleanest edge is often positioning into the information calendar (debates, nominations, court dates, economic prints) before liquidity spikes and pricing tightens. Copy trading YatSen is less about mirroring every move and more about treating his entries as “where the smart money is starting to lean.”

Trader #3: Scottilicious (aka ScottonPoly)

• Politics PnL: $1,154,286

• Win Rate: 85.1%

• Gains / Losses: $1,814,155 / $660,969

• Active positions: 63

Scottilicious has been a consistent Politics grinder with scale (we covered him in our 2025 US Election post). How else do you get to over $1M PnL on an 85.1% win rate? His biggest win came in the New York City Mayoral Election (+$65,229), a good example of how he tends to press when he sees a mispriced narrative and then just…sits in it. The flip side of that same “size it when you like it” approach is visible in his worst loss: ‘Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?’ (-$60,658), where being early/overconfident around a fast-moving geopolitical tape can sting. Scottilicious frequently leans into “No” legs and spreads risk across related markets rather than one pure punt. He’s one to watch for sure.

3 Sports Traders to Copy Trade

Sports markets are relentless: constant events, constant lines, constant opportunity to overtrade. The best sports traders tend to win via repetition, sizing, and knowing when not to play. Copy trading sports is less “one big bet” and more “follow a system that survives a season.”

Trader #1: kch123

• Sports PnL: $10,665,696

• Win Rate: 54.1%

• Gains / Losses: $50,211,833 / $39,546,138

• Active positions: 460

kch123 is what happens when you treat sports markets like a business: insane volume, constant activity, and a massive tag-level PnL that suggests real edge over time. The win rate isn’t “pretty,” but in sports you don’t need pretty. You need positive expectancy and enough repetitions for the math to show up. This looks like a trader who understands that the goal isn’t to be right every time; it’s to be right enough, with disciplined sizing, across a huge sample. That’s why kch123 is ranked the #1 Sports trader on Polymarket. Copy trading kch123 is like tailing a high-frequency athlete: you’re not following one highlight play, you’re following training camp.

Trader #2: DrPufferfish

• Sports PnL: $7,211,233

• Win Rate: 51.6%

• Gains / Losses: $30,180,361 / $22,969,128

• Active positions: 622

DrPufferfish is built for sports: huge number of active positions and a PnL profile that screams “I’ve been here, I’ve seen this line, and I’m still hungry.” Sports markets can be efficient, but they’re also emotional. Prices swing on injury rumors, late news, and public bias. Traders who can keep putting on trades without tilting after a bad beat are the ones you want to tail, and the activity here suggests exactly that temperament. If you’re copy trading DrPufferfish, the move is to mirror the pattern - consistent engagement - rather than trying to cherry-pick one bet and call it “strategy.”

Trader #3: 0x006c…16ea

• Sports PnL: $5,174,310

• Win Rate: 47.9%

• Gains / Losses: $13,958,254 / $8,783,944

• Active positions: 1

This is a fascinating sports profile because the PnL is enormous, but current activity is low, more “sniper” than “machine.” That can be exactly what you want in sports: a trader who doesn’t feel the need to have action on every game and instead waits for the right setup. The win rate being under 50% is a reminder that sports edges often come from pricing, not prediction. You can lose a lot of markets and still be net-up if you’re taking good numbers and sizing well. Watch for the moments that 0x…16ea is seeing. Because when they show up, they might be seeing something.

3 Crypto Traders to Copy Trade

Crypto prediction markets are their own beast: high volatility, reflexive narratives, and the occasional “what do you mean it moved 12% while I made coffee?”. The best crypto traders tend to be systematic, fast, and very comfortable living in the chaos.

Trader #1: 0xf705…3ca7

• Crypto PnL: $1,917,299

• Win Rate: 54.4%

• Gains / Losses: $2,358,221 / $440,923

• Active positions: 96

This wallet looks like a crypto specialist who understands the crypto math. You don’t need to win every market, you need to win the ones that matter with the right sizing. The big tell is the gap between gains and losses. Losses aren’t ballooning, which is rare in a category that happily punishes overconfidence. Crypto markets reprice on momentum, then reprice again on narrative, then reprice again because someone posted a chart with a line going up. A trader who’s consistently profitable here is either extremely disciplined, extremely fast, or both. And that’s exactly what copy traders should want.

Trader #2: 0x8dxd

• Crypto PnL: $1,671,783

• Win Rate: 53.8%

• Gains / Losses: $5,167,958 / $3,496,175

• Active positions: 23

0x8dxd has a ridiculous number of positions. This is what ‘experience’ looks like in a market ecosystem. Crypto markets reward repetition because they present similar structures over and over (ranges, breakouts, mean reversion, event-driven spikes), and this wallet appears to have played them all. The win rate isn’t flashy, but the PnL is – suggesting they’re likely getting good prices and staying consistent over time. If you’re copy trading crypto, this is the kind of wallet that can teach you what a ‘system’ looks like when it’s been stress-tested by every coin flip the market can throw.

Trader #3: justdance

• Crypto PnL: $1,340,347

• Win Rate: 58.4%

• Gains / Losses: $4,108,700 / $2,768,353

• Active positions: 992

justdance is always on as a crypto trader. Nearly 1,000 active positions is not a hobby, it’s a lifestyle choice. In crypto, edges often come from being consistent and present when the market offers mispricing windows, and this activity level suggests they’re harvesting those windows constantly. A win rate near 60% at that scale is meaningful: it indicates they’re not just participating, they’re winning more often than not. If you’re going to copy trade anyone in crypto, tailing someone who treats it like a full-time job is usually a good place to start (and yes, it’s called justdance because crypto will make you dance whether you want to or not).

3 Mention Markets Traders to Copy Trade

Mentions markets are where prediction markets get weird…in the best way. These questions often trade on media cycles, virality, and attention. The best traders like PredictionMarketTrader are usually fast, opportunistic, and good at reading the internet’s mood swings (which is like reading tea leaves during an earthquake).

Trader #1: Bertapotamous

• Mentions PnL: $96,998

• Win Rate: 74.7%

• Gains / Losses: $125,953 / $28,954

• Active positions: 7

Bertapotamous has the exact profile you want in Mentions: high win rate, solid PnL, and enough activity to suggest they’re still hunting. Mention markets move like memes: fast, emotional, and often detached from “reality” in the way only the Internet can achieve. A trader winning here is likely good at anticipating what will dominate the discourse, not what should dominate the discourse. If Politics is a debate stage, Mentions is a group chat. Bertapotamous seems to know which messages are about to go viral.

Trader #2: EscalateFund

• Mentions PnL: $88,920

• Win Rate: 90.2%

• Gains / Losses: $149,597 / $60,676

• Active positions: 4

A 90.2% win rate in Mentions is absurd, in the same way it would be absurd if your friend claimed they never lose arguments online. That suggests EscalateFund is either extremely selective or extremely good at picking spots where the market is asleep. Mention markets often misprice timing; when something will trend can be more valuable than if it trends. If you’re copy trading this wallet, treat their entries like alerts: “something is happening” or “something is about to happen,” and they want to be early to the attention wave.

Trader #3: dududududu

• Mentions PnL: $73,071

• Win Rate: 74.7%

• Gains / Losses: $105,506 / $32,435

• Active positions: 3

dududududu is a great Mentions follow because the results are consistent without looking like a one-off lucky streak. Mention markets are basically a test of do you understand how attention moves, and the strong win rate suggests dududududu does. The edge here is likely speed and selection. Not every headline deserves a trade, but the right ones can be wildly mispriced early. If Mentions is a drumline, this trader is keeping tempo. Dududududu indeed.

In Closing

You can tail all 12 traders on Stand with one click and see their trades in real time. Copy trading isn’t about finding one “best trader”, it’s about finding the best traders for each category, then letting their proven edges work while you stay disciplined. Stand allows you to filter out categories with ease whenever you set up a copy/counter strategy. Try it for yourself today.

Want a Part 2? Tell us which tag we should tackle next (Finance, Economy, Weather, Culture, Tech, or something even weirder).

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

To tackle copy trading, Stand incorporated new elements to raise the game and give pro traders the best tool possible to conduct sophisticated strategies. Here’s how copy (and counter) trading is superior on Stand.

(1) Counter Trade - if you can’t beat ‘em, bet against ‘em!

70% of the 2M traders on Polymarket have a negative P&L. That means everyone knows the good players and the good players know they’re being watched. But it also means a more lucrative strategy might be to go against the herd and profit off the habitual losers.

Take bcda, statistically one of the worst NBA traders on Polymarket. They have lost $2.4M lifetime, $1.4M of which was on NBA markets. That makes bcda the perfect trader to counter trade.

Setting up counter trading is easy on Stand. Use the category filters to narrow your strategy to specific markets.

And voila! It’s time to start counter trading bcda.

(2) Set Up Multiple Strategies

Copy trading on Stand can be so much more than a blind follow on all of a followed traders’ trades. You can set all types of conditionals to execute your desired trade order.

For example, on Stand’s copy trade you can choose if you want to buy as a percentage, range, or fixed amount of your followed trader. Set your entry price, slippage, volume amounts, market resolution time frames, how long you want to copy trade for, and how to exit a copy trade.

Best of all, you can set competing or differentiated strategies for the same traders.

(3) Category Filters

Other copy trading bots blindly copy all of a traders’ trades. That’s bad. What if a Fed Rate trader (Win Rate > 70%) tries his luck on the Mention Markets (Win Rate < 20%)? Again, you’ll get rekt. To avoid this, you can set individual categories for each trader you copy trade on Stand. Follow sports traders when they enter sports markets and nothing else.

(4) No Fees

To make copy trading a pure magical experience, Stand is launching it with no fees. 0% fee on copy trading.

We understand how margin sensitive pro traders are. Others may promise fancy tiered rewards while Stand protects traders’ bottom lines.

N.B. While Stand allows trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, copy trading is only allowed on Polymarket at present.

In Conclusion

Every product decision Stand makes is to empower traders with the most sophisticated trading tools out there. Copy trading is a powerful tool in the tool box when executed correctly. This is Stand copy trading v1. Please tell us what we can do to improve. And, remember, the bottom line on Stand is always the same: for the betterment of the trading community.

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

🎯 How to Trade

The entire experience is on-chain on Solana thanks to our partners over at DFlow. When you click Kalshi on Stand, a Solana wallet will automatically be created for you. You can read more about it in our documentation.

You will need to deposit Solana in order to trade.


Your profile will now distinguish your Polymarket balance from your Kalshi balance while showing you your total balance.

🔍 How to Find Prediction Markets

To celebrate the occasion, we used the Kalshi integration to revamp Discover too. Finding the right markets is painstakingly difficult for prediction markets on one platform, let alone across several. Traders need to know what’s available to trade and when it’s available to trade. Stand now pulls all the events and markets across Polymarket and Kalshi to make it even easier for pro traders to find.

Find markets across Polymarket AND Kalshi. Sort them by category. Save them to your Watchlist.

Stand gives traders the ability to search across a list view, a card view, and now a calendar view. Traders can see which markets are ending soon in a 3-Day or Month view.

🛣️ What’s Next

Kalshi and Polymarket are just the beginning. We are already working with other prediction markets to integrate them into Stand. If you’re a prediction market and want to be integrated in Stand, reach out in our Discord.

In a world of prediction markets, traders need the best tools available. Stand is ready to serve you so you can put real skin in the game. The markets are ready. The tooling is better. Where do you Stand? 🎯

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

Happy New Year! New years bring new markets. We figured it’s the perfect time to peak ahead of what’s in store for 2026. Of course, there are “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns”. We expect the unexpected whenever dealing with the news. Traders beware! More surprises await beyond these events. With that said, here are 10 markets Stand has saved to its market watchlist:

1. The Future of Venezuela

   

   On January 3rd, Operation Absolute Resolve was conducted. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured in a surprise US military operation. The fireworks are just beginning for the new year. What is Venezuela's fate? Will former opposition candidate and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado reenter her home country before April? Who will lead the country? Questions abound, making it the perfect geopolitical event to trade.
   

2. New Fed Chair

   

   And now his watch has ended. Jerome Powell reaches the natural end of his second term. But with Powell out, who will step in? My money is on Kevin…although that’s where I stop. Kevin Hassett is the odds-on favorite at the time of this post surpassing Kevin Warsh. One of these Kevins will get left home alone. There can only be one…new Fed Chair.
   

3. The Winter Olympics at Cortina

   

   Buongiorno! Another four years have passed and it’s time for the Winter Olympics. Which country will claim the most gold medals? Well, Norway has topped the medals table since 2010, usually followed by Germany. Why would 2026 be any different?
   

4. Academy Awards

   

   Something Wicked is brewing in Hollywood…the annual Academy Awards! One Battle After Another is driving away from the pack to win Best Picture at 79%. Don’t count out Sinners or Hamnet or Marty Supreme though. Better yet – did you know you can trade which actors or actresses will get nominated? Jump in now because by February all the alpha will be found.
   

5. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire

   

   Will the Russian and Ukraine war finally come to a peaceful resolution in 2026? The markets have it at 17% before the end of March and 45% before the end of the year. We wrote a whole post about the top Ukraine traders to follow. Start with the experts. Insiders or not, they are watching closer than anyone else as they have real skin in the game.
   

6. IPOs Galore

   

   Any day now. Any day. We’re all waiting on SpaceX to file its S-1 so it can move ahead with the most anticipated IPO of 2026. SpaceX isn’t the only player in town though. Once Upon a Farm, Cerebras, and Discord are all North of 50% to IPO some time in 2026. Prediction markets are a perfect vehicle to determine which companies will go public. 2026 should be a doozy.
   

7. Khamenei

   

   The protests in Iran have no end in sight. Is this time different? Will Khamenei be deposed? He has a 33% chance of being out as Supreme Leader of Iran before June. That number jumps up to 46% before the end of the year. Choose your timing carefully. There are markets for the end of January and March too. Time will tell if the winds of change are actually blowing in Iran.
   

8. The World Cup

   

   The World Cup is being held in North America this year. You know what that means? Dumb American bettors clumsily trying to figure out which socialist country will take the Cup in 2026. Europe is heavily favored to have the winning team at 74%. You can get more granular and see the individual countries here.
   

9. US Midterms

   

   We are including two here since the US has a bicameral legislature. Currently, the Democrats are favored to win the House by 79% while Republicans are expected to hold onto the Senate (67%). Don’t sleep on the gubernatorial elections though. Ohio, Alaska, Michigan, Maryland, and so many more are all on the ballot come November.
   

10. US recession?

    

    It’s still the economy, stupid. Prediction markets are wonderful bellwethers to identify general sentiment on the economy. Right now, there’s a one in four chance that the US experiences a recession before the end of the year. Canadians, fear not – you can trade your economy too…until the end of 2027.

In Closing

That was our top ten list for 2026. You can save all these markets and more to your Stand market watchlist. Better yet – you can trade them!

What did we miss? What else are you excited about in 2026? Sound off in the comments. We always make a point to respond! And be sure to trade all the markets on Stand like the pros.

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

We are fast approaching the scariest time of the year…elections! The New York City Mayoral debate happened last Thursday, which means we are down to the final stretch. There are three big US elections: the New York Mayoral race, the Virginia Governor race, and the New Jersey Governor race. The Virginia governor race is a foregone conclusion with Abigail Spanberg at 93%. Mikie Sherrill is in command at 81% for New Jersey. So our attention turns to NYC.

Current Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the NYC race. It’s down to Mamdani, Cuomo, and Sliwa. Mamdani holds a commanding lead at 92% at the time of this writing. Interestingly enough though, there appears to be a shift by the top election traders. What do they know…?

Listen, if a socialist is going to win an election, you might as well get rich in the process by following the experts. What could be more ironic than trading a socialist victory on free markets? Irony never had this much liquidity.

Methodology

Like our NFL and Crypto write ups, we will be using Stand, Polymarket Analytics, & Hashdive!

In this post, we will be looking at,

1. Overall P&L = Total Wins - Total Losses
   

2. # Total Positions = Current, Live Positions the Trader Holds

Again, there is no one, singular way to identify good traders to follow. We chose the 2 metrics above and expanded it across three categories: ‘Politics’, ‘Elections’, and ‘US elections’. There is high overlap between the three, yet way more data points in ‘Politics’ by a factor of 10. We shared ‘Politics’ metrics because it provided a better sample size.

Prediction markets adjust when the news comes out. Don’t be surprised if some of the information in this article becomes quickly outdated. Two of the tracked traders exited out of their Mamdani Mayoral positions after the debate. Do your own research and remember this is not financial advice!

Caveats out of the way – all three election traders below have a P&L North of seven figures! These three incredible traders are all already on Stand, and all ready to be copy traded. In no particular order, here they are!

Trader #1: scottilicious

Overall P&L: $1,179,193

Politics P&L: $891,441

Overall Win Rate: 84.1%

Politics Win Rate: 84.6%

Total Politics Positions: 69

Scottilicious has a tendency to jump in late to surefire markets. Rarely does he buy into a market, let alone an election market, below $0.70.

That explains the absurdly high win rate. You can almost think of him as a ‘bond trader’. In prediction market circles, a bond trader buys North of $0.90 on what is perceived to be a safe trade with a payoff similar to a bond yield.

For example, Scottilicious’ largest position right now is on “Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?”. He bought No at $0.93. It is currently at $0.98. Whether it was smart to wager $174,000 for $12,000 profit, time will tell. Still, you have to admit, it’s working.

Scottilicious is long on Mamdani winning. He has a six figure position on Mikie Sherrill winning the New Jersey Gubernatorial election. He’s confident that Abigail Spanberger will win the VA race too – although, he bought at $0.95 and it’s currently trading at $0.94. He even dabbled in some 2028 presidential election positions.

The results speak for themself. When you’re the #43 overall trader on Polymarket and your P&L is up and to the right, Stand not only listens, but follows. We added scottilicious as a must-follow for all things elections.

Trader #2: Kapii

Overall P&L: $1,010,650

Politics P&L: $1,015,650

Overall Win Rate: 60.2%

Politics Win Rate: 62.5%

Total Politics Positions: 47

It says a lot about Kapii that his Politics P&L is higher than his Overall P&L account. That’s because like a lot of traders Kapii excels in one area (Politics/Elections) and tries to translate that success into other categories. Pro tip: don’t follow Kapii into battle on anything Eurovision related.

Thanks to our friends over at Hashdive, we can see that Kapii is something of a contrarian; 49% of his positions were first bought at below $0.50. And he’s no stranger to sticking it out as over 40% of his positions are now below their price. But make no bones about it, Kapii is an election savant and has a long track record to prove it. He bought Mamdani at $0.45 before it was cool, back when Mamdani was still a dark horse candidate in the NYC Democratic primary. Kapii has no positions in the VA or NJ governor races. He’s put all his weight and analysis into the NYC Mayoral election. And it just so happens that Kapii is still a big Mamdani believer – er, trader.

What are Kapii’s 2025 US Election Positions?

Yes on Mamdani winning the 2025 NYC mayoral election

Yes on Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC Mayoral race

No on Will Curtis Sliwa drop out of the NYC Mayoral race.

Yes on Mamdani winning The Bronx in the 2025 NYC Mayoral race

Yes on Hakeem Jeffries endorsing Mamdani

Yes on Mamdani winning all 5 boroughs

You’d be foolish not to follow 50th best overall trader on Polymarket this election cycle (according to Polymarket Analytics). You’d be even more foolish not to track Kapii on Stand!

Trader #3: aenews2

Overall P&L: $1,437,944

Politics P&L: $892,896

Overall Win Rate: 72.9%

Politics Win Rate: 72.4%

Total Politics Positions: 79

The old guard can skip this recommendation. Anyone who’s been around prediction markets for any length of time knows the name ‘aenews2’ — one of the best news traders to ever do it! 85% of aenews’ P&L comes from Politics. Add their consistency to the mix and you have an all-time great. Be forewarned aenews2 has at least 5 known alternative accounts (all available for discovery on Stand) and likely more. The top traders know they’re being watched. They counteract this by preempting their main account purchases with freshly-minted accounts to get a nice profit.

What are aenews2 big positions this cycle? Here’s where it gets interesting (and this may change), as of two days ago, aenews2 sold his entire Mamdani stake (18K shares) and bought into the ‘No’ position.

No on Mamdani winning the 2025 NYC Mayoral Election

Yes on Sherrill winning the NJ Governor race in 2025

No on the Democratic Sweep (VA Gov, NJ Gov, VA House, Mamdani NYC, & CA Prop 50)

Prop 50 on Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50

My man even has a position on the Seattle Mayoral election (Yes on Bruce Harrell). How’s that for an election portfolio?

And thanks to our friends over at Hashdive, we can see that aenews2 is a careful trader. But he has the P&L to show for it.

Watch aenews2 carefully over the next few days. You won’t be disappointed.

Bonus Trader: debased

Overall P&L: $1,022,105

Politics P&L: $754,456

Overall Win Rate: 64.6%

Politics Win Rate: 65.7%

Total Politics Positions: 293

Debased is an elections trade machine. You read that right: he has 293 active political positions. The only thing more impressive than debased’s volume is his range. He won $400,000 from accurately predicting the next president of South Korea. His second largest win was on the Romanian Presidential election winner where he nearly pulled in six figures. Suffice to say, when debased trades on elections, you should listen. So what does he have in store for the 2025 US Elections? Currently,

No on Will Curtis Sliwa drop out of the NYC Mayoral race.

He bought the Sliwa position at $0.79, now at $.90. He also exited out of his Mamdani positions the past few days. Is that smart trading by taking profits? Or is there a change in the air? Or both?

Debased also is market making on the JD Vance Republican Presidential Nominee in 2028 market. Debased may be one of those accounts that you watch carefully on election night. You never know what he might do but better safe than sorry to have him on your Stand watch list.

In Closing

There are so many more traders than the four we shared here. A lot can happen in a week. Watch these traders carefully and copy trade them on Stand.trade. It’s free!

We would love to hear from you. Who did we leave off the list? What did we miss? Tell us on X.

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

If you’ve been snooping around other traders’ profiles on Stand, you may have noticed three unusual actions: Redeeming, Splitting, and Merging. They all serve different purposes depending on the positions traders hold. Understanding these differences can help you as a trader maximize your returns and avoid unnecessary steps.

When To Redeem Shares on Prediction Markets

Redeeming is the simplest option to convert your position. When a market resolves, i.e. ends, you can claim any winning/losing shares directly into USDC at a 1:1 ratio.

For example,

If Theo4 bet YES on the Republican Party winning the 2024 Presidential election and the market resolves YES, Theo4 can now redeem his 120,469 YES share for $120,469 USDC.

If Theo4 bet NO on the Democratic Party winning the 2024 Presidential election and the market resolves NO, each NO share Theo4 owns becomes 1 USDC.

Most traders will take this approach to close out a position. By redeeming their shares back to USDC, they can enter into another market or withdraw their funds entirely.

There are scenarios where redeeming may not make sense as we will cover in the next section.

When To Merge Shares on Prediction Markets

Say a market is over yet the winners are waiting to be paid out. This can happen from time to time when oracles are resolving the market or when a market is under dispute. Merging is when you hold both YES and NO shares in the same market — which often happens if you’ve been trading or market making (Polymarket, in particular, incentivizes traders to close spreads).

Merging allows you to combine equal amounts of YES and NO shares and redeem them for USDC.

For example, if the Zelenskyy suit market is under dispute, and you hold 100 YES and 100 NO shares, merging cancels them out and gives you 100 USDC. This avoids the hassle of selling your losing shares separately and provides instant liquidity by simplifying your settlement.

You can actually merge shares seamlessly in Stand! Simply click ‘Merge’ from the drop down and voila! Remember, it will only work when you have equal shares of both sides of a market.

When To Split Shares on Prediction Markets

Splitting is the reverse of Merging. It converts 1 USDC into 1 YES and 1 NO share, which you can then trade independently.

Why would you want to split into an equal number of shares? Polymarket offers rewards for users who help narrow the spread between positions. Traders calculate which markets are lucrative to help narrow the spread and jump in to claim the rewards. This is called ‘liquidity providing’ or ‘liquidity mining’.

Splitting may also make sense in a market where liquidity is weak on one particular side. By being proactive, it makes merging all that much easier down the road for a quick exit:

Example: Split 100 USDC → receive 100 YES + 100 NO shares.

Merge 100 YES + 100 NO shares back to USDC

Stand makes splitting seamless too! Like with ‘Merge’, all you have to do is click on ‘Split’ from the drop down in the trading panel. It will tell you the minimum required to split into both sides of the market.

In Closing

Redeem your position in a market that has cleanly resolved or in one where you don’t have positions on both sides. This is what most traders will do.

Split USDC into balanced sets of YES and NO shares for the same market. This is common for liquidity providers seeking reward incentives.

Merge your position if you have both sides and want to settle cleanly before a market resolves.

Knowing when to use each option helps you manage your portfolio efficiently and avoid leaving value on the table. Stand allows you to do all three actions easily AND provides real insight into when traders do either, particularly in the case of liquidity mining (i.e. when traders put up capital to close the spreads and earn rewards).

Just one more way that Stand has your back. Try it yourself today!

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

It used to be if you were an expert polymarket trader, you would find markets on Polymarket by scanning the homepage and Trending/Top Markets to spot where liquidity is pooling. You could Search for a particular event or category (e.g., politics, crypto, macro) to narrow to domains where you had edge. Or you could sort by 24H volume, open interest, and recent price movement to gauge tradability, skim the order book for depth and spread tightness, and read the market rules/resolution source to avoid tail-risk ambiguity.

Today, Discovery for prediction markets has leveled up.

Stand, the advanced trading terminal for prediction market traders, is introducing two new tools to help traders find better trading opportunities: Discover & Pulse.

Discover - a market scanner that allows you to search, sort, filter, and trade with ease

Pulse - an opportunity highway, driving real-time markets across your three lane view

Both are powerful tools meant to save you time in a fast-evolving ecosystem. Let’s dig in.

Discover

Stand’s Discover is built for pros who search where liquidity is, how fast it’s moving, and when it resolves. Instead of wading through noise, you land on a ranked table that immediately exposes opportunity density: Spread, 24H Volume, Volume, Liquidity, 1D Rewards, Start Dates, and End Dates so you can calibrate risk appetite to the day’s tape before you touch a single market.

Every column is a signal. You can sort or filter these fields to surface exactly the kind of market you trade best: tight spreads for fast execution, rising 24H volume for momentum, high liquidity for sizing, short End dates for faster capital turns, or larger 1D Reward for maker-style strategies. Each column gives you control by sorting it to how you trade best.

The category filters give you a precision scanner, sorting across targeted tags like Crypto, Earnings, Elections, Fed, 15M, 1H, MrBeast, Tweets Markets, and so much more. Save them for repeat runs.

Best of all, you can execute trades right from Discovery. The Trade button is available on every row, so once your screen surfaces a target, you jump straight into the ticket—no context loss, no re-searching. Stand is built to save you minutes to get the best price possible.

Here’s an example of what you might do:

1. Sort by 24H Vol to find fresh flow.

2. Filter to your domain.

3. Re-sort by Spread and Liquidity to confirm execution quality.

4. Check 1D Reward to price maker yield.

5. Validate End vs your catalyst calendar.

6. Trade Instantly at the best price

Stand creates prediction market discovery into alpha generation because everything here is trade-first. Discover is your professional scanner. You use it to rank, filter, and time entries with the same discipline you bring to research and risk. The result is a faster path from idea to filled order, with fewer surprises between.

Pulse

Pulse on Stand gives you three signal lanes in one view—New, Trending, and Disputed—so you can decide what tape you want before you even touch a market. Instead of scrolling a single feed, you pick the route that matches your edge: fresh listings to front-run price discovery, momentum markets with thick books and clean exits, or contested markets where rule ambiguity creates mispricing.

But, we took it a step further: you are not limited to just New, Trending, and Disputed. Those are the defaults. You can view Proposed Markets in your lane or create a custom view that’s savable for future alpha. Set it to categories. Drill down on your filters. Sort accordingly. Stand gives you everything you need at your fingertips to find every possible trading opportunity.

On Pulse, the markets are set in cards. Each market card is a mini blotter: Yes/No price, Spread, 1D Reward, 24H/Total Volume, Liquidity, and Start/End are all visible. And again, Stand has made it dead simple to trade right there in the moment. You triage in seconds—tight spreads and high liquidity for sizing, hot 24H vs. total for fresh flow, near end dates for faster capital turns—and route straight from idea to trade execution without tab-hopping. Saved clicks are saved basis points.

Suppose you turned Pulse your repeatable morning playbook:

1. Choose lane (New/Trending/Disputed) to set regime.

2. Apply Category AND/OR logic to route to your domain.

3. Gate by Liquidity and Spread to ensure execution quality.

4. Overlay 24H/Total Volume for velocity vs. durability.

5. Add Price and 1D Reward to shape EV and carry.

6. Align End Date with catalysts.

7. Click Trade and size to book depth.

Bottom line: Pulse is your new discovery scanner. You don’t browse; you route. You can save your workflows into clean simple view lanes to save you time and money.

Conclusion

This is the first version of the new discovery stack for prediction markets—and the Stand team is only warming up. We’re iterating fast so you can move from signal to size even faster. Expect more soon and please help us shape it by sharing feedback in our Discord or on X. Stay tuned—we’re just getting started.

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

Prediction markets move fast. Odds can swing on breaking news, insider information, or even the momentum of trader sentiment. For many participants, one of the most underutilized but powerful tools is the stop order. Stop orders also play a crucial role in prediction markets—especially as liquidity deepens and volatility increases.

Until recently, it wasn’t possible to place stop orders, but now you can on Stand! In this post, we will walk through a few scenarios where a trader might want to place a stop order and how you can set stop orders on Stand.

What Is A Stop Order?

A stop order is your instruction to buy or sell when the market hits a certain price. In other words, it protects you from having to monitor the market 24/7. For example, you might say: “If this YES share falls below 40 cents, sell my position.” Once that trigger price is reached, your order converts into a market order and executes.

Think of it as your guardrail—either preventing your losses from spiraling or locking in profits before the tide turns.

How Is A Stop Order Different From A Limit Order?

A limit order is where you set a specific price (ex. 55 cents) and your order is filled only at the price or a more favorable one for you. There is no guarantee of execution if your order fails to hit the chosen price point.

The cleanest illustration of a limit order is the ‘take profit’ order. Sometimes the hardest part of trading isn’t spotting the right market—it’s knowing when to get out. A take profit order can help you realize gains by automatically selling once your target price is reached. Instead of second-guessing yourself or getting greedy for a little more upside, you can lock in gains the moment the market moves in your favor, freeing you up to focus on your next trade.

When To Use Stop Orders In Prediction Markets

1. Protecting Against Sudden News Shocks
   Prediction markets thrive on uncertainty. A Supreme Court ruling, a leaked poll, or a breaking tweet can shift probabilities instantly. Since you can’t always sit glued to your screen, a stop order lets you automatically cut risk if the market moves against you faster than you can react.
   

2. Locking in Profits on a Winning Position
   Say you bought shares of “Candidate X wins” at 30¢ and they’ve risen to 70¢ after a strong debate performance. You might want to stay in the trade for more upside, but you don’t want to watch profits evaporate if new polling flips sentiment. By placing a stop order at, say, 55¢, you ensure gains are secured even if momentum reverses.
   

3. Managing Emotional Trading
   Prediction markets, like sports betting or day trading, can trigger emotional swings. Stop orders help you enforce discipline. Instead of panic-selling when odds dip, or clinging to a loser because you “hope” it will bounce back, your stops execute the strategy you set in advance.
   

4. Scaling Out of Large Positions
   For whales or active traders, stop orders can be staggered at multiple price points. This way, parts of your position are sold gradually if markets decline, rather than dumping all at once and risking poor fills in thin liquidity.

When To Use Stop Orders In Prediction Market

Stand is an advanced trading terminal for prediction markets designed to help give you an edge over the competition. Beyond live trade feeds and alerts, you can also place stop orders on Stand. Here’s how it works.

1. Place a market order on any market

2. Select ‘Take Profit / Stop Loss’

3. Determine what price point you want to lock in a gain for ‘TP price’. You can choose how much of your position you want to sell.
   
   or
   
   Determine what price point you want to lock in a loss for ‘SL price’. You can choose how much of your position you want to sell.
   
   IMPORTANT: You can set multiple TP & SL orders at different price points.
   

4. Place the order

And voila! You have now set a stop order on stand. Super easy, right?

You can edit your orders at any time in your positions. You can also cancel open orders (only applicable to Take Profit orders).

Stop Orders Aren’t Foolproof

Remember, stop orders carry caveats in prediction markets:

• Slippage: In fast-moving markets, the execution price may be worse than the stop level for you.
  

• False Triggers: Temporary price spikes can trigger stops unnecessarily, causing a quick exit from the position.
  

• Liquidity Risks: If order books are shallow, your stop could execute at a much less favorable price.

This is why many traders pair stop orders with limit orders, setting a maximum (or minimum) price at which the trade can be executed.

Conclusion

As a prediction market trader, stop orders are one of the most important tools in your risk-management toolkit. Thankfully, Stand has you covered here by making them dead simple to use. You can set percentages and multi-steps. On Stand, stop orders help you protect your capital, lock in profits, and keep emotions from driving your decisions in markets that can swing on a single headline. The best traders don’t just predict outcomes—they manage risk with discipline.

If you haven’t started using stop orders yet on Stand, it may be time to add them to your strategy.

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

Prediction markets offer an opportunity to see the wisdom of the crowds. Our faithful Stand traders demanded a crypto edition of traders to follow our NFL writeup. Why? Crypto is the second most popular category on Polymarket with over 12,200 events (the first is sports in case you were wondering). Crypto prediction markets have blossomed into an array of questions: will Ethereum’s price be up or down within the hour? What will Bitcoin’s price be by the end of October? When will Monad airdrop its token? And so much more!

Methodology

Like our NFL write up, we will be using Stand & Polymarket Analytics, the best prediction market history book around. It’s the perfect counterpart to Stand if you consider Stand to be your Bloomberg Terminal: real-time analytics, copy trading, and an advanced trading terminal. This time, we figured we’d sprinkle in some Hashdive too! Hashdive is terrific for spotting price and P&L trends. It’s another terrific tool for the professional trader’s toolbox.

In this post, we will be looking at,

1. Overall Category P&L = Total Wins - Total Losses

2. 7 & 30 Day P&L Trends = How Streaky Traders’ Are

3. # Total Positions = More Attempts, More Data Points

Again, there is no one, singular way to identify good traders to follow. Rankings can be misleading. We removed Win Rate after the feedback from our community who affirmed what we previously wrote; it’s easy to have a high win rate ( % of markets traded where the trader profited) when you take assumed safe bets, i.e. trading in markets that have 90% probability.

One quick caveat: each prediction market category has its own wrinkles. It’s safe to assume the traders in crypto are fiendishly advanced and likely trading directly through Polymarket’s API. What gives us the confidence to make such a claim? The frequency and precision of their trades. The traders below all typically enter around a $0.40 to $0.60 price and wait until market resolution to redeem. They trade measured amounts – varying by accounts – and typically stick to one sub-category in crypto (1 hour versus the Daily Up or Down). We mention this not because they’re not worthwhile in tracking or mirror trading, but just as a warning so you know what you’re up against.

With that said, we found three incredible crypto traders to follow, all already on Stand, and all ready to be copy traded. Let’s dig in!

Trader #1: Justdance

Crypto P&L: $352,293

7D P&L: $30.7K

30D P&L: $6.2K

Total Crypto Positions: 3,215

Active Crypto Positions: 429

‘What’s going on on the floor?’ is not only a LadyGaga lyric but how Justdance approaches crypto prices in prediction marketland. His P&L is up a staggering 60% percent in the last month. Justdance dabbles in the blue bloods, Bitcoin and Ethereum mainly, by trying to identify their price point on a monthly cadence. And he’s shown he’s really good at it too. Interestingly enough, the markets where Justdance does the worst in is anything politics related. But if you stick to crypto, he’s your man. He’s top 10 in every crypto category with the notable exception of the hourly markets, where Dance shamefully lands at #11. Oh, and if that wasn’t enough to convince you, Justdance is the 63rd best overall trader on Polymarket according to Polymarket Analytics. Dance must be doing something right. Grab ‘em as your dance partner! The track you ask? Any of the BTC markets – although, you won’t suffer following their lead in anything with a token address. Justdance, gonna be okay, da da doo-doo-mmm…

Trader #2: 1TickWonder2

Crypto P&L: $187,688

7D P&L: $5.9K

30D P&L: $35.1K

Total Crypto Positions: 11,284

Active Crypto Positions: 336

1TickWonder2 is THE trader to follow for the hourly (ex: Will Ethereum be Up or Down in 1 hr?) markets. If it’s crypto and recurring, which most of the crypto markets are, then 1TickWonder2 smashes the competition. Where is the Tick weakest? Interestingly, 1TickWonder2 has made 2 trades outside of crypto, both in Formula 1, both on the F1 Belgian Grand Prix Winner, and only 1 was a loser. It seems like the Tick knew funds were not secure as he wagered a meagerly $500. Tick hasn’t wagered on F1 since! He decided to stay within his lane and focus on Bitcoin Up or Down. We’re fairly confident he’s trading algorithmically considering the systematized nature of his trades: anywhere from $500 to $1200 typically, usually in the morning or evening hourly markets, although they can run at all hours of the day. He’s a popular account among the Stand team to watch as he continues to suck the blood out of the crypto prediction markets.

Trader #3: EGH

Crypto P&L: $131,080

7D P&L: $6.6K

30D P&L: $29.1K

Total Crypto Positions: 10,013

Active Crypto Positions: 479

EGH’s historical P&L is a sight to behold. Up 5X since July!!! EGH has traded over $8M in volume. In that span, EGH has demonstrated a mastery in the hourly markets. Not many traders reach 10,000 positions in over 5000 markets with a positive six figure P&L (side note: this is another trader who likely is benefiting from computational resources. Bot potential?). That alone makes them a worthy follow.

EGH has dabbled in everything from the Super Bowl to Ukraine with few losses to show. There is one Achilles’ heel, and, curiously, it is in the crypto markets: XRP. Under no circumstances should you follow EGH into battle for anything Ripple related. EGH is squarely in the red there, having lost over a net $1K and a total $41K. Oddly, 1Tick suffers in the XRP markets too, so it could be a market issue. Stick to the blue blood hourly markets (BTC, ETH, & SOL) and EGH will take you to Valhalla!

In Closing

The crypto markets are an evolving space in prediction markets. Just last week, Polymarket launched 15 minute Up/Down markets after all the volume achieved from the hourly and daily markets. There are so many more traders than the three we shared here. You can copy trade them and more on Stand.trade. It’s free!

We would love to hear from you. Who did we leave off the list? What did we miss? Tell us on X.

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

Have you ever wanted to trade on prediction markets but don’t know where to start? Stand, the prediction market copy trading platform, is here to help keep you ahead of the curve! We talked to traders and compiled the most common mistakes traders make when they first start trading prediction markets.

1. Set a strategy

2. Stay informed!

3. Don’t go out of your swim lane

4. Read the rules!

5. Avoid market orders on illiquid markets

6. Do not wait for a market to resolve to exit

7. Do not discount the time value of money
   

Here they are!

1. Set a strategy
   
   The worst mistake you can make is trading on vibes. Sure, you may win a few wagers, but sooner or later the markets will wreck you. What do you do? You should come with a sound strategy of how you plan to win. This can either be crafting your own thesis after you have done your own research (#DYOR) or you can copy trade the experts. We wrote a whole blog post about the merits around copy trading here.
   
   No strategy is fool proof, which is why you have to…
   

2. Stay informed!
   
   Prediction markets react fast. You can assume the sharp traders are watching every new headline attentively. Some traders have bots set up to trigger trades around certain market conditions. Never take any market as a given as the world is a fast moving place.
   
   Example: You have a wager on Jannik Sinner winning Wimbledon. Sinner goes down two sets against Grigor Dimitrov in the Fourth Round. The prediction markets have Dimitrov over 80% likely to win. Then, suddenly, Dimitrov pulls out of the match due to injury. If this sounds far-fetched, it’s actually not. The Sinner futures markets yo-yo’ed around this sequence of events earlier this summer. Stay on guard, stay informed.
   
   Using tools like Stand help notify you ASAP when there’s a change to a market.
   

3. Don’t go out of your swim lane
   
   Too many traders have been fooled by their own track record, thinking it will naturally translate into success in other categories. Unless you really are a polymath or born with a horseshoe up your you-know-what, you will not consistently succeed in a market you do not understand. Being a successful US election trader has no real advantage in the sports markets and vice versa. You have to know each domain by their own merits.
   
   This trap hurts traders intra-domain too. You may know everything under the Sun about the US Presidential election. How does any of that knowledge translate into who will win the Polish Presidential Election? Do you know anything about the Polish presidential candidates? Do you know what the crucial issues are for the Polish electorate? Do you know how their election process is held? You can certainly take the time to research all these variables. You should assume in good faith that other traders will and have too. Be on guard.
   
   Stand helps you here sorting markets into categories. If you only know the crypto prediction markets, you can organize your Stand trade feeds to show only crypto prediction markets.

   

4. Read the rules!
   
   Prediction markets have a relatively straight forward structure: someone makes a prediction around a particular topic. They set a deadline when the market has to resolve by…AND they set the terms. For some markets, like sports markets, it’s fairly straight forward. This event will take place at the set time and will be settled by the team who scores the most. However, in more ambiguous markets, you have to know what you are getting yourself into. One of Polymarket’s most controversial (and highest traded) markets was the infamous Zelenskyy suit market. What constitutes a suit? How will you know if Zelenskyy wears one? What may seem like fairly straightforward conditions can turn gnarly very quickly. Always, always, always read the rules.
   

   

5. Avoid market orders on illiquid markets
   
   We. Cannot. Stress. This. Enough.
   
   Market orders are fantastic when you have a liquid, or heavily traded, market with a deep order book. The conditions have to be ideal for you to pull the trigger. If not, you will lose money.
   
   Ex: You put in a market order to buy $100 on “Yes” for “Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
   
   Polymarket will instantly fill that order at the lowest price available. In illiquid markets, this is unlikely to be a fair price, which means you are paying more than it’s worth. You could be paying $0.50 per share instead of a fair value at $0.10. Using limit orders gives you more control by dictating what price you want your order filled.
   
   Prediction markets are still immature markets in a lot of ways.
   

6. Do not wait for a market to resolve to exit
   
   This is a painful lesson that many first-time traders learn the hard way. Why? Because prediction markets are not perfect. They are representations of sentiment. And, sometimes, they do not resolve neatly. In Polymarket, all rulings can be disputed.
   
   Enough ink has been spilled on the issues around UMA.
   
   The bad news is there is no way to know in advance which market this will happen to.
   
   The good news is you can actually make a fair amount of money from a market that is at 90%. The beauty of prediction markets if you can leave at any time…provided there’s a buyer for your position. That’s why it is critical to check the liquidity, i.e. how deep the order book is, in a given market. Stand lets you set and change limit orders with ease in our market trading interface.
   

   

7. Do not discount the time value of money
   
   New traders often underestimate the time value of money. What does that mean in prediction markets? A market that resolves in a week versus one that resolves in three months might have the same expected payout, but the opportunity cost of tying up capital for longer can eat into your potential returns! Remember to consider not just whether a market is mispriced, but how long your money will be locked up and what else you could be doing with it. You never want to overcommit to long-term markets that deliver lower effective returns than shorter, more liquid opportunities!
   
   Polymarket has done a good job of addressing this by offering holding rewards. They reward long-term pricing by passing a 4.00% annualized Holding Reward in certain markets. You can read more about it here.

In Closing,

Knowledge is learning from your mistakes. Wisdom is learning from others’ mistakes. By now, you should know the 7 common mistakes all new prediction market traders make. That doesn’t mean you won’t make them! Be on guard. And have fun. Like all things in life, there is a learning curve with prediction markets.

Are there other mistakes you think we missed? Please let us know by joining the Stand Discord.

Stand is free to use and helps traders of all expertise. Start trading on Stand today!

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

The Hall of Fame Game kicked off last week, which means it’s officially football (not "fútbol") season. Preseason starts this week and to get you prepared for the regular season, Stand did your homework for you. We found three incredible traders to follow, all already on Stand, and all ready to be copy traded.

Methodology

We will be using Polymarket Analytics, the best prediction market history book around. It’s the perfect counterpart to Stand if you consider Stand to be your Bloomberg Terminal: real-time analytics and copy trading for prediction markets.

In this post, we will be looking at,

1. Overall P&L = Total Wins - Total Losses
   

2. Win rate = (# of Markets w/ Net Profit) / (Total # of Markets Traded)
   

3. # of Active Positions = Current, Live Positions the Trader Holds
   

There is no one, singular way to identify good traders to follow. Rankings can be misleading. The top NFL trader, as measured by P&L, had one big trade on the Super Bowl this year and nothing else (admittedly, winning $855,000 is nothing to sneeze at!). P&L is a good place to start, especially when you can break it up by category. You would never follow a trader who has a history of losing bets. At the same time, you have to consider how many trades they have made. We filtered traders to have at least 50 trades (read: not active positions) as a baseline for their activity.

We chose the 3 metrics above because not every trader is active. Some accounts (famously Theo7/Fredi9999) go dormant after a monstrous win. How much a trader wagered and at what average price factors into these recommendations too. It’s easy to have a high win rate ( % of markets traded where the trader profited) when you take assumed safe bets, i.e. trading in markets that have 90% probability. Active positions tell us they are still trading in the space.

Let’s meet our contestants!

Trader #1: semi

Football P&L: $203,587

Win Rate: 58.4%

Total NFL Positions: 524

# of Active NFL Positions: 1

Semi only has 1 active NFL position and it’s a small one. He is the #7 ranked trader on Polymarket Analytics. Last NFL season, his P&L was $203,587 with a win rate of 58.4%. Quite impressive, more so when you see he wagered in over 50 games for a total of 583 positions! Semi chose his spots perfectly last season and appears ready to do so again this season. His average invested amount was well over $1000. He already doubled his money on “Will the Vikings trade JJ McCarthy?”. With that kind of activity, Semi is an instant Stand follow.

Trader #2: RBP

Football P&L: $141,969

Win Rate: 92.0%

Total NFL Positions: 83

# of Active NFL Positions: 0*
*At the time of writing, RBP, had active positions on the Hall of Fame Game.

Remember that disclaimer about win rate? You can throw that out the door with RBP who has a staggering 92% win rate in the NFL. What’s more, RBP has won over $160,000 and lost less than $20K in the category. His aggregate win rate across Polymarket is 85%. Here’s where it gets interesting: RBP’s all-time P&L is -$84,291. So why are we recommending him? RBP lost over $365,000 in March Madness. We’re not recommending him for college basketball here! But if we were, we would caveat it by his one big loss was the historic Duke loss against Houston in the Final Four. He lost over $220,000 in that wager alone. It goes to show the numbers can be deceiving. You have to dig into the details to understand a trader’s strengths! He bet and won on the Hall of Game, so he’s already back in action!

Trader #3: JewHammer

Football P&L: $37,316

Win Rate: 70.5%

Total NFL Positions: 85

# of Active NFL Positions: 8

This trader loves football so much he already has $6,000 in active positions. We can’t tell if he’s a Buffalo Bills fan or not because he’s going hard in both the Bills to win the AFC Championship AND the Super Bowl. But anyone who is betting on Shedeur Sanders starting markets and has a 70% win rate demands your attention – JewHammer believes Sanders WILL start, although it’s by no means their usual +$1K bet: they waged $15 to win $140.

Bonus Trader: abeautifulmind

Football P&L: $106,204

Win Rate: 70.1%

Total NFL Positions: 749

# of Active NFL Positions: 0

Another whale who has won over $1.4M on Polymarket with a 72% win rate to boot. We excluded abeautifulmind because he currently has no active positions (we checked his profile). However, he was active during the NFL draft earlier this year. We have no reason to believe he won’t be once the season kicks off. He’s #7 in Sports with over 1800 positions across 250 markets. That kind of track record merits mentioning.

In Closing

You can follow semi, RBP, JewHammer, & abeautifulmind on Stand.trade with a click of a button. All their trades will appear in real-time to give you all the information you need to copy trade. Stand is free. So what are you waiting for…beyond the start of the NFL season?

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

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What is Copy Trading?

Copy trading is a strategy where you automatically or manually replicate the trades of other, usually more experienced, traders. In traditional finance, it’s common in forex and stocks. Funds copy trade other funds’ positions all the time.

On Polymarket, trades happen 24 hours a day and are completely transparent–the benefit of being on-chain. This means it’s the perfect environment to copy trade top-performers across markets. You piggyback on someone else’s conviction.

The trick is…

1) knowing who to copy trade.
2) seeing when to copy trade.
3) and trading before the opportunity is gone!

In some cases, this is automated: you set parameters around another trader on how you want to follow or counter their trades. For example, say I want to copy trade all of Nancy Pelosi’s stock buys. Autopilot is a seamless way to do so. You create an account and select the politician’s portfolio you want to mirror. Autopilot does the rest.

Copy trading can also be manually performed. The beauty of crypto is that all on-chain transactions are visible. Polymarket is an on-chain prediction market, which means it’s ripe for copy trading. For example, if you see Domer buying shares of pope candidates, you don’t need to be a Papal Conclave expert. You can estimate with a high degree of confidence that Domer has done his homework. The more money he puts behind a candidate, the more convicted he is since no one would willingly wager money on a losing position.

Since prediction markets are still emerging, we encourage users to manually copy trade for reasons we will explain in detail below. We built Stand to help you copy trade seamlessly.

Why should you copy trade on Stand?

Speed, speed, speed. It takes time to get to conviction. It’s much easier to follow the top 5% of traders who account for the majority of a market’s gains. Often whales (anyone trading more than $5K) get material information on a market before anyone else.

It also takes time to find the right people to copy trade. You would never copy trade someone who has a history of losing!

With Stand,

Stand helps you copy trade whales in real-time. We have two feeds that show you trades right as they are happening:

1. Live Trade Feed - a real-time stream of trades from people you follow.
   

2. Whale Watching - this is a discovery feed of all whale activity

Stand enables you to trade any other trader’s activity right in the feed. Plus, Stand gives you real-time notifications after any whale makes a move.

With intuitive UI and a feel for the prediction market experience, Stand is a no-brainer for copy trading Polymarket whales!

Why should you NOT copy trade?

You need to be careful around the market conditions. For example, automation can work in liquid markets, or markets that have a low spread between buyers and sellers. However, you can get burned trying to copy trade in illiquid markets.

For example, if Vitalik buys “Will Ethereum launch a token?” at $50 and the next available price to buy is at $100, you probably wouldn’t want to copy that trade (Note: Polymarket prices range from $0.01 to $100 on every market)! Believe it or not, that can happen in prediction markets where there aren’t a lot of buyers or sellers, or where buyers and sellers are far off on price (aka the spread).

A number of whales are rewarded on Polymarket for market making, narrowing the spread between buyers and sellers. Polymarket will pay those traders for taking positions on both sides of a market. You would be foolish to copy trade traders who are market making. Thankfully, on Stand, when you hover over a market in the feed, you can identify whether they are market making by seeing all their positions in a market.

You also need to be careful around who you copy trade. Context matters. Sports traders may have low success rates in election markets. With Stand, you can click into a traders’ profile and see their all-time Profit & Loss (P&L) in all positions.

Remember, always do your own research (#DYOR)! Be sure to check the price of what you are buying every time. And, like all trading, determine in advance how much you can afford to lose.

It’s important to remember that copy trading is one tool in the tool box of trading strategies.

Conclusion

The beauty of copy trading is even if you are a little late to the game, you still can catch a moving market closing towards resolution. And, you will learn as you go!

Sign up today at www.stand.trade!

N.B: This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.